There is a whole lot of talk and analysis, going on presently, around the party rules and who they might favour (Trump or the “Establishment”). Rule 40 B is good for Trump and Cruz but won’t work for anyone else. But isn’t Cruz part of the “Establishment”? To anyone who knows better, that is obviously a facetious question. Cruz is as much a part of the “Establishment” as is Trump, in actual fact. Or at least he has been historically. But increasingly the term “Establishment” has come to mean anyone who isn’t Donald J. Trump.
Other rules seem to favour the “Establishment” over Trump, at least, once people are free to vote their conscience, after the first ballot. In New York State, for instance, new rules were put in place in 2012, to guard against alleged nepotism. So, now the State party officials will meet after the primary to select the delegates for the candidates, themselves. Donald Trump is beginning to worry that even a big win in New York, could load him up with delegates who will be in that “Establishment” camp, meaning that he will certainly lose most of them on the second ballot.
Donald Trump currently has 743 delegates. Cruz/Kasich/Rubio have 838.
Say what you will about the delegates, their job is to pick a winner for the party. Those of them who do this in good conscience, have to consider Donald Trump’s negatives. Only 3 in 10 Americans have a favourable view of Trump. There are enough of them to fill football stadiums and get him about 35% of the vote in some of the primaries but unless he completely turns his numbers upside down, he would be headed for the biggest defeat of a Republican candidate for President, in history.
At this particular moment, it looks as if the Republicans are going to implode. And there are reports of serious problems within the Trump campaign.
One has to wonder, why Donald Trump is doing this? Some have suggested that he really doesn’t want to win. Is he doing this just to ultimately become more famous? Did he deliberately set out to destroy the Republican party because he is really a Clinton plant or truly some kind of closet liberal? If he did set out to destroy the party, you’d have to give it to him; he’s done a very good job of it, so far. What he will do at the convention, is anyone’s guess.
Breitbart, Drudge, Fox and Friends, Alex Jones (the most shameless of opportunists-this guy and Roger Stone are in a league of their own), Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Ben Carson…have they all fallen for it, for real? Do they really believe all those lies? Is this some real life version of ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’ and they are like ‘the weavers’, caught in some sort of trance?
These are all legitimate questions, which makes this, without a doubt, the strangest, scariest and possibly most historic American election for President, in modern history. The Never Trump coalition will win or go down in flames trying. And the Republican party will need to emerge, like a Pheonix, from the ashes, as one cohesive force, with a platform and ticket that all these voters who came out in the primary, can buy into and which get them out to vote, in November.
If either Rubio or Kasich were to join Trump, he would become the nominee for certain. But they won’t. They will join Cruz, who will pick up enough delegates between now and the convention, to deny Donald Trump the 1237 delegates he would need, to become the nominee, on the first ballot. Donald Trump will lose on the second ballot and Ted Cruz will bring the Republican “Establishment” together and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton in November. How and where Trump winds up at the end of all this, is going to be fascinating to observe.
My next blog will be about why Hillary Clinton will ultimately choose Bernie Sanders as her running mate.