Hillary and Bill Clinton, Bernie and the Democrats

Let’s assume for a minute, that Hillary Clinton, indited or not, is in position to lock up the nomination.

Bernie Sanders, has won eight of the last nine contests. It might not be enough to put him over the top and now things move east but in the end but it is very significant.

Clinton’s momentum seems to be going in reverse.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign knows that she will not have a hope in hell, in a general election, without the Bernie Sanders supporters, especially after the last two weeks. It is as simple as that.

The one vote that Hillary Clinton thought she had solidly, was the black vote. Just this past  week, Black Lives Matter interrupted Bill Clinton, while he was speaking, to protest his crime bill, which is currently being reformed with broad bi-partisan support coming from, the White House and both chambers in the House of Representatives.

“Is it fair to criticize Bill Clinton for incarcerating an entire generation of young black men, with his 1994 crime bill?” This question will be asked on all the talk shows this morning, in reference to Black Lives Matter’s current criticism of Bill Clinton and that is more bad news for Hillary Clinton, at a time when bad news is in abundance at the Clinton campaign’s headquarters.

Whoever they might have been looking at adding to the ticket, as her running mate, being able to secure the Sanders support, is now the single most important thing and whatever is in second place, is so far behind, that it doesn’t much matter what it is.

Hillary Clinton needs to run a campaign, in the general election, in 2016, that is going to be way left of what she had in mind but she won’t have a choice.

Whatever you care to attribute it to, Bernie Sanders has already earned a spot on the ticket and he will have an authoritative voice in putting together the platform.

Could he choose a younger surrogate to be put on the ticket, in his place? Yes, this is definitely a possibility but it’s hard to think of a reason that isn’t superficial, to replace him with someone else.

In all likelihood, Bernie Sanders will be the nominee for the Vice-Presidency on the Democratic ticket.

In an otherwise gloomy and gridlocked political caucus coming out of Washington, criminal justice reform has been a real source for hope for the future and for positive results coming from real bi-partisan efforts. Hillary Clinton thought she would be able to sneak into the general election, on the right side of this issue, being in favour of these reforms, without drawing too much attention to the fact that much of what is being reformed, comes from the crime bill that was signed into law by her husband, over 20 years ago. No such luck. She can thank Black Lives Matter for bringing it up. Now, everyone is talking about it. Of course, it doesn’t help that Bill Clinton had a little trouble letting it go when he got interrupted. He had to get into it with the protesters. No, he didn’t…did he really? Yes, he did.

If you missed it, just turn on any Sunday morning talk show today. They will be talking about it and playing that clip.

There’s only one old man generating real excitment in the Democrat party and it’s not the one with the soutthern accent. When they replace Bill with Bernie it won’t be soon enough for the Clinton campaign. At this point, Bill needs to take some Geritol and stop talking. Yeesh

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The Republican “Establishment” vs. Trump

There is a whole lot of talk and analysis, going on presently, around the party rules and who they might favour (Trump or the “Establishment”). Rule 40 B is good for Trump and Cruz but won’t work for anyone else. But isn’t Cruz part of the “Establishment”? To anyone who knows better, that is obviously a facetious question. Cruz is as much a part of the “Establishment” as is Trump, in actual fact. Or at least he has been historically. But increasingly the term “Establishment” has come to mean anyone who isn’t Donald J. Trump.

Other rules seem to favour the “Establishment” over Trump, at least, once people are free to vote their conscience, after the first ballot. In New York State, for instance, new rules were put in place in 2012, to guard against alleged nepotism. So, now the State party officials will meet after the primary to select the delegates for the candidates, themselves. Donald Trump is beginning to worry that even a big win in New York, could load him up with delegates who will be in that “Establishment” camp, meaning that he will certainly lose most of them on the second ballot.

Donald Trump currently has 743 delegates. Cruz/Kasich/Rubio have 838.

Say what you will about the delegates, their job is to pick a winner for the party. Those of them who do this in good conscience, have to consider Donald Trump’s negatives. Only 3 in 10 Americans have a favourable view of Trump. There are enough of them to fill football stadiums and get him about 35% of the vote in some of the primaries but unless he completely turns his numbers upside down, he would be headed for the biggest defeat of a Republican candidate for President, in history.

At this particular moment, it looks as if the Republicans are going to implode. And there are reports of serious problems within the Trump campaign.

One has to wonder, why Donald Trump is doing this? Some have suggested that he really doesn’t want to win. Is he doing this just to ultimately become more famous? Did he deliberately set out to destroy the Republican party because he is really a Clinton plant or truly some kind of closet liberal? If he did set out to destroy the party, you’d have to give it to him; he’s done a very good job of it, so far. What he will do at the convention, is anyone’s guess.

Breitbart, Drudge, Fox and Friends, Alex Jones (the most shameless of opportunists-this guy and Roger Stone are in a league of their own), Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Ben Carson…have they all fallen for it, for real? Do they really believe all those lies? Is this some real life version of ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’ and they are like ‘the weavers’, caught in some sort of trance?

These are all legitimate questions, which makes this, without a doubt, the strangest, scariest and possibly most historic American election for President, in modern history. The Never Trump coalition will win or go down in flames trying. And the Republican party will need to emerge, like a Pheonix, from the ashes, as one cohesive force, with a platform and ticket that all these voters who came out in the primary, can buy into and which get them out to vote, in November.

If either Rubio or Kasich were to join Trump, he would become the nominee for certain. But they won’t. They will join Cruz, who will pick up enough delegates between now and the convention, to deny Donald Trump the 1237 delegates he would need, to become the nominee, on the first ballot. Donald Trump will lose on the second ballot and Ted Cruz will bring the Republican “Establishment” together and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton in November. How and where Trump winds up at the end of all this, is going to be fascinating  to observe.

My next blog will be about why Hillary Clinton will ultimately choose Bernie Sanders as her running mate.

 

 

 

Cruz/Kasich 2016 – A Bold Prediction?

What about Cruz/Kasich and Rubio (with Rubio as Secretary of State)?

Ronald Reagan had George H.W. Bush. Ted Cruz will have John Kasich. 
Two different Republican tickets for the Presidency and Vice Presidency, trying to capture the White House from the Democrats, who have it and are trying desperately to hold on to it.
36 years separate these elections. In both cases, the Republican candidate for President is a big time outsider. These outsiders, who come from, both the conservative wing and the grassroots, are at the top of the ticket in both cases and both have long time government insiders, from the more liberal wing or middle lane of the party, as their running mates.
Two nights ago, Bill O’Reilly made a “bold prediction”. He predicted that Ted Cruz would offer the V.P. slot to Kasich before the convention, adding that it would be “an Ohio play and delegate play combined”.
In so much as, this is the first time a prominent conservative personality ‎has made this prediction, while there has been plenty of speculation about the possibility of a Cruz/Rubio ticket in the meantime, one could call this a “bold” prediction. Given that Marco Rubio lost the primary in Florida, while John Kasich won the primary in Ohio, it’s far more of a sensible prediction than is Cruz/Rubio. In other words, if you really think about it, it’s not so bold of a prediction at all.
Glenn Beck, a surrogate for the Cruz campaign, not only predicted Cruz/Rubio, he has been actively pushing for a Cruz/Rubio ticket, saying that it would be an “unstoppable” team, especially if they were to add Senator Rand Paul to the cabinet, as Secretary of the Treasury, which he also suggested. He had something in mind for Ben Carson as well but that was before Carson threw in for Trump.
Beck should reconsider his plan. Kasich brings far more to the ticket than Rubio would, namely evidence that he can carry Ohio, arguably the‎ most important swing state in the general election.
‎Kasich for President supporters, point to his continued dominance over Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls, the importance of Ohio in the general election, Kasich’s overwhelming support in Ohio (because of all of his accomplishments as Governor and evidenced by his win in the primary there), his experience and his overall electability .
What might not come across clearly to a Kasich supporter, is that those virtues are equally applicable and important to the Vice Presidency and they bring to the ticket, that which presently eludes Ted Cruz and that which he desperately needs. It is hard to imagine anyone able to add more to the ticket than John Kasich. And Kasich may have a better ability than even Cruz will, to connect with and ultimately bring over the Trump supporters.
While the specifics of their assets as running mates differ, George Bush the elder and John Kasich, both bring together the establishment and the grassroots. Both bring together, the conservative wing and the more liberal wing of the party. Both round out the ticket in a very smart, calculated and, in the case of Ted Cruz, HOPEFULLY, winning way.
If Ted Cruz wants to look to the best of his old adversaries in the 2016 Republican primary for cabinet positions and as a way to unite the party‎, Senator Rand Paul would be a great choice for Treasury. Perhaps, with his foreign policy experience, Marco Rubio would be a good candidate for Secretary of State. As it happens, he also has 173 delegates.
Current Delegates: Trump 743 – Cruz/Kasich/Rubio 838